Day 106: The 70% Rule Does Not Apply To LeBron
Line of the Night: There is, at this site at least, a fantasy basketball tenet we call The 70% Rule. That is: When a player shoots over 70% for a game, it is generally regarded as a fluke, and should not really be considered part of the player’s value to a fantasy team going forward. I think we all know that most rules don’t apply to LeBron James (yes, you can read that many different ways depending on if you’re a lover or a hater), but after 3 of his record-breaking 6 games with 30 points on 60% shooting were over 70%, that rule certainly does not apply. And so I give you our Line of the Night: LeBron James scored 30 points on 11-15 from the field adding 6 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks (3.14 WARP) (Just in case the shooting wasn’t enough for you). Nearly as exciting (okay, not even close) is the fact that over his last 4 games, LeBron is back in the 78% range for FT shooting. Telling you the truth here: When LeBron shoots 78% from the line, he is an undeniable #1 fantasy pick. He’s only done that once, though, and that’s why guys like Chris Paul (in the past) and Kevin Durant have been able to be in the conversation for that #1 spot. The 70% Rule still applies to pretty much everyone else though (especially the terrible shooters in today’s Biggest Loser section).
Honorable Mentions: Speaking of #1 spots, though… Kevin Durant isn’t giving up without a fight. Or at least without scoring 33 points on 11-16 from the field (only 68.8%) with 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals (2.56 WARP).
LeBron’s superfriend Chris Bosh had 32 points on 13-16 from the field, and 6-6 from the line, adding 11 rebounds, and 2 steals (2.44 WARP).
Ty Lawson is up to #12 on the Player Rater over the last 2 weeks after his 29 points, 12-20 from the field, 9 assists, and 3 steals (1.62 WARP). Stephen Curry is not too far behind at #14 in his last 6 games with 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists (1.55 WARP). Both were losers last night though with Curry’s Warriors going down thanks to the likes of Chandler Parsons and James Harden. Parsons had 21 points, 9-15 from the field, 3 threes, 8 rebounds, 9 assists (1.45 WARP) while Harden stayed tied for #3 overall (YTD) with 27 points, 11-11 from the line, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals (1.36 WARP).
Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Jermaine O’Neal (2% owned) got 27 minutes off the bench (getting a little extra time filling in for one of our Biggest Loser candidates, Marcin Gortat) and had 12 points, 4-4 from the line, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 blocks (1.73 WARP). I’ll say he’s definitely a good deep league pick-up, and a short term add especially for daily changes leagues.
Pick Up Lines: I kind of figured it was only a matter of time before Tony Allen (33% owned) shut down Jerryd Bayless’s fantasy mojo. Allen had 19 points, 8-12 from the field, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals (1.27 WARP) in 32 minutes, while Bayless played only 24, going 2-7 for 6 points. Even with Allen’s improving play, he’s still only ranked #139 over the last 2 weeks. If you’re in a roto league and need to catch up in steals, though, he’s a gold mine.
P.J. Tucker (0% owned) doesn’t usually do much even when he gets big minutes, but he doesn’t have a positive WARP over his last 14 games, so he must be worth something… Last night he had 13 points, 5 assists, and 2 blocks (1.25 WARP).
I think I’ve said this before, but with Pau Gasol out for pretty much the rest of the season, someone in your league has to add Antawn Jamison (28% owned). I’m not saying it has to be you, but he will put up 19 points, and 10 rebounds (0.90 WARP) every 2-3 games…. the only problem is you can’t really be sure when it’s going to happen.
Kosta Koufos (22% owned) has fallen off a bit of late, but the guy is still #112 on the season and #155 over the last 2 weeks. If you need a big man who can rebound with some blocks and steals, check this one out: 8 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 steals (0.86 WARP). If, on the other hand, you want to add a Nugget to your team, but you need a prototypical Small Ball guy, take a look at Andre Miller (43% owned) who played 31 minutes off the bench and had 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists (0.78 WARP). He did shoot 5/6 from the field, which is 83%, so he falls under the 70% Rule, but remember, I said prototypical Small Ball guy (though, his 48% from the field over his last 14 games is pretty swell for a Small Ball player, and he’ll give you some pretty decent rebounding from the PG spot).
Biggest Loser: I kind of want to call this one the Murderer’s Row of Field Goal Percentage. Goran Dragic leads things off with 7 points on 3-12 from the field, along with 1 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 turnovers (-1.16 WARP).
Then the clearly-still-recovering-from-injury Andrea Bargnani went 2-7 from the field for 4 points, 1 rebounds, and 0 assists (-1.09 WARP).
Next up: Kevin Martin shot 3-8 from the field to end with 6 points, 1 rebounds, and 0 assists (-0.80 WARP).
Two more: Marcin Gortat: 4 points (2-8 from the field), 7 rebounds, 1 assist (-0.65 WARP); and Kobe Bryant with 4 points (1-8 from the field), 5 rebounds, 9 assists, 8 turnovers (-0.62 WARP).
They all tried so hard, and got so far, and in the end, for two of their teams (Raptors and Lakers), it didn’t even matter.
Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.
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