Day 105: Where the Spurs Could Win with Justin Bieber as their PG

Posted Feb 12 2013 by Patrick in  with 35 Comments

justin-bieber-allstar-game

Line of the Night: It was a long nine games to wait while Chris Paul sat with a bruised kneecap, but Paul is now back in a big way, scoring 21 points on 9-11 from the field, with 11 assists and 5 steals (2.75 WARP) in a win over the Sixers. Even more amazing, this all came in less than 25 minutes on the court. The Clippers are the only team in the league to have 3 games this week, so Paul owners look to be in good position to completely dominate this short week before the All-Star break.

Honorable Mentions: Bradley Beal scored a career high 28 points, adding 4 threes, 2 steals and 2 blocks (2.50 WARP) while playing 36 minutes against the Bucks. I’m surprised that Beal got so many minutes after he’s been averaging 25 a game before getting hurt, but Jordan Crawford has been reduced to getting DNPs, so the Wizards’ SG position looks like Beal’s to lose. As long as he can keep his FG% north or 40%, he’s another player in position to have a strong post All-Star run.

And also for the Wizards, Nene Hilario had one of his best games of the season with 21 points, going 10-13 from the field, and adding 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals (2.07 WARP). That Ersan Ilyasova… not the world’s greatest interior defender.

The Bucks were led by Monta Ellis – who bounced back from a horrible performance on Saturday with 24 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 6 steals (1.95 WARP) last night. Brandon Jennings, however… yikes. More on him later.

Dirk Nowitzki had his best game of the season BY FAR, scoring 24 points, with 3 threes, 7 rebounds and 2 steals (2.28 WARP) against the Hawks. Congratulations if you’ve been holding on to Dirk all this time, he is slowly, but surely starting to flash some of that old Dirk magic.

The Hawks got two great performances in this game – Al Horford scored 21 points, going 10-14 from the field, with 10 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks (2.08 WARP). And Josh Smith scored 26 points, adding 4 threes, 13 boards and 6 assists, although he did also turn the ball over 5 times (1.80 WARP). Who wouldn’t want a guy like Josh Smith on their team! Well, other than the Hawks, as Smith is still one of the more likely players to be moved before the deadline.

If before the season, I told you that you had to pick from Anthony Davis or Ryan Anderson, many people would have went with Davis. And while Davis played 17 minutes last night and shot 0-7 from the floor, Ryan Anderson scored 31 points off the bench, adding 5 threes and 2 blocks (2.27 WARP) in 31 minutes. Anderson is ranked #19 on the season on our rater, Davis is currently ranked at #56 (and falling). And while we’re taking about the Pelicans, their other big man Robin Lopez, came through with 23 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks (1.95 WARP). Lopez has definitely has his ups and downs this year, but this is his 8th straight double-digit scoring game, so ride RoLo while he’s hot.

Injury of the Night: Leandro Barbosa is expected to miss the rest of the season after injuring his knee last night. Barbosa was only averaging 12 minutes a game this season, but those are 12 minutes that now go to Avery Bradley, Jason Terry and Courtney Lee. Maybe this injury will finally be the thing that gets Jason Terry back on track.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: The fantasy basketball masses aren’t the fastest group of people, so excuse us for harping on Nick Young (33% owned) some more despite the fact that news broke that Jason Richardson is going to miss the rest of the season after deciding to get surgery on his ailing knee. Yes, Young is coming off two pretty bad games where he didn’t shoot all that well, but last night he broke out for 29 points, adding 4 threes, 5 assists and 3 steals (2.19 WARP) against the Clippers. Barring a complete breakdown, Young will start for the Sixers the rest of the year and is worth a look if you need a SG type.

Pick Up Lines: Al-Farouq Aminu (18% owned) had his second good game in about a month, scoring 12 points and adding 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks (1.86 WARP) against the Pistons. This might be the start of another run for Aminu, but considering juts how bad he’s been leading up to this game, excuse me for not running out to grab him just yet.

Reggie Evans (7% owned) was just eating glass last night for the Nets, grabbing 22 rebounds in their overtime game against the Pacers. He also scored 8 points and blocked two shots (1.17 WARP). Amazingly, the 22 rebounds isn’t even a season high for Evans (he had 23 against the Sixers in January). Ultimately, Evans is the definition of a one-category wonder. If the only thing you’re looking for is rebounds, he’s your man, but he typically does nothing else on the court and isn’t worth using in all but the deepest leagues.

The Spurs sat Duncan, Ginobili and Parker last night and still beat the Bulls 103-89. How? On the back of Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Boris Diaw (5% owned) of all people, who started at PF and scored 10 points with 3 steals (1.16 WARP) in 36 minutes on the court. Not exactly the craziest stat line for all those minutes, but Diaw becomes a deep league option as the Spurs continue to sit Duncan.

Jeff Green (21% owned) scored 18 points, going 5-8 from the field and 7-7 from the line (1.11 WARP) in 24 minutes off the bench for the Celtics against the Bobcats. Green was one of our second half breakout players in our podcast this week, and you’ll want to try to find a way to pick him up with you’ve got the room on your team.

Biggest Loser: Brandon Jennings shot (although I originally wrote down the word “shit” by accident) 3-17 from the field against the Wizards, with 1 rebound and 7 assists (-0.61 WARP). I’ve said it before, but games like this are what separates Jennings from the next tier of PGs, he’s going to have to develop some consistency before he’s considered an elite fantasy PG.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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  • Brian

    Hey guys, it’s me again. I’m thinking of offering this trade to a team in my league: Noah, Nash, and J.R. for Ryno, Pierce, and Teague. Is it fair? Who wins?

    • zee

      The Teague side by a mile

      • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

        Yeah… I certainly wouldn’t take that trade if I were the guy getting Noah, etc. Pretty lopsided.

  • Mike

    Beal or IThomas?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d go with Thomas for now.

  • J-Know

    Beal or Klay Thompson ROS? WAS has a nice playoff schedule compared to GS.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Yeah, I’d take Beal for the extra game per week (until the last when they both have 5).

  • sanny350z

    What are the odds that the Wolves won’t play Love for the rest of the season? I was thinking about stashing him for the playoffs, but I am worried that he won’t play come playoff time. Also with the Hawks playing 4 games for 6 straight weeks, is Devin Harris worth an add despite his injury history?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      The odds that he’s out for the year are not zero, but he probably comes back on schedule or close to it. Last I’ve read Love has said that his rehab is ahead of schedule and he’s feeling good, but is going to play it safe so he doesn’t suffer the same injury yet again.

      Harris is… meh. He’s got a great schedule the rest of the way, but he’s been really inconsistent and is injured all the time. Maybe in a 14+ team league he’s worth a shot, but in a 12 teamer their might be better options.

  • zee

    Does changing the # of teams or players on the Player Rater change the rankings in any way? (The rankings themselves, not the wins calculator)

    • brian

      I use bballmonster a lot and only used this one a little bit. I imagine the manipulations for # of teams and # per team is the same (I can’t see why it wouldn’t be). In that case, changing those numbers does not affect the ranking, it only puts the overall value through a different multiplier to take into account the depth or shallowness of a league. But, this is only my conjecture and understanding.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      brian is correct, changing the number of teams and players will change the WARP value of players, but not the actual rankings themselves. Technically, the rankings should change (if only slightly) because a 16 team league has a different pool of starters than a 12 team league and that has an effect on the stats that are in play. But doing it that way is a bear in terms of mathematical computations, which is probably why BM takes the short cut method as well.

      • zee

        Oh I see. So how are the average stats calculated (in the wins calculator) for an x-team league? Is there just a multiplier by the 12 team league standard? Or does it actually take the top 13 * x players for the rankings and calculate the averages thataway?

  • Velvet

    Hi GMTR,

    Wonder what is your opinion on a Klay Thompson/Joe Johnson for Kyle Korver/OJ Mayo.

    GSW’s playoff isn’t looking too good. I would like to do this to improve fg% and maintain 3s. Do you think Kyle Korver/OJ Mayo can maintain their ~46% shooting the rest of the season?

    • Velvet

      Also Martell Webster or Jeff Green. Thanks!

      • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

        Webster has definitely been playing better than Green recently, but with Beal back and Ariza now playing better, Green seems like he’s going to trend better than Webster over the rest of the year and would be the guy I’d pickup out of the two.

    • brian

      do the trade.

      Klay and joe’s FG percent arnt exactly great, and Korver is shooting lights out over the last couple of weeks, unless you really like the upside of the other too i don’t see why you wouldn’t make such a deal. This trade will help you win in fg% and maintain your 3s. Hopefully you can see where I’m coming from.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Mayo has a career 44% FG% while Korver has a career 43% FG%, so what they are doing this year isn’t completely out of line with that you’d expect, although the law of averages says that 1 of the 2 guys will probably end up regressing. Still, I think it’s a good trade for you. Mayo is the best player in the deal AND you pick up a better playoff schedule as well. I’d make that trade for sure.

      • Velvet

        Thanks Pat for your input. I was wondering what do you think about this trade. Tyson Chandler/Klay Thompson for Chris Bosh/Ersan Ilysova.

        • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

          Extremely good trade for you, might be tough to get that once accepted. Bosh has been a good amount better than Chandler this season and Ilyasova has been better than Thompson lately.

  • Philosurfer3

    Which side of this trade would you want to be on? Earl Clark or Kevin Martin? Who wins?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      They are actually extremely close in overall value over the past few weeks, so I think a lot of it probably depends on whether you are looking for a big or a small. Strangely, Clark’s role seems a little more stable at the moment given the Gasol injury, so I’d guess I’d give him the slight edge at least while Gasol is out.

  • Philosurfer3

    Sorry for posting another question. What about Brook Lopez / Kevin martin for Anthony Davis / Earl Clark / AK47?

    • brian

      Bropez side fo sho. He’s by far the best player in the trade, and I’d rather be on the side getting the best player and/or fewer players since roster spots in themselves are valuable.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      No problem, post away. Who would the third player you’d be dropping (or picking up) in the trade? It’s close (although I’m leaning toward the Davis/AK side) and that would probably be the deciding factor about whether to make the trade.

  • Razvan

    Hawes,Mullens, McGee or J Green? Roto, need, FG%,STL,BLK.

    Smith is going to be traded, which can be a better fit Lakers for Pau or Boston for Pierce?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Mullens is playing great right now, I think you’ve got to pick him up despite the fact that he’s probably the worst fit with the categories you mentioned. Green or McGee is a better fit if you are only looking for those categories you mentioned, but I’d rather pick up Mullens and then work some trades to get at those categories you need.

      I think just about anyone would be a better fit with the Lakers. D’Antoni = fantasy magic. Well, unless you are Pau Gasol.

      • Razvan

        Yup i had all three and didn;t know who to drop for Green. I ll wait a bit on Hawes, he s very inconsistent.

  • http://www.facebook.com/steven.tran.3701 Steven Tran

    dudley was dropped. is he worth picking up??

    if so, who should i drop

    my team (small ball)
    T.lawson,
    I.Thomas.
    M.conley
    R.foye
    J.jack
    K.thompson
    M.barnes
    C.Parson
    D.granger
    K.korver
    D.nowitzki
    A.bogut
    T.splitter

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      No, I would not drop anyone to get Dudley. He’s been horrible since the Suns’ coaching change and isn’t worth the roster spot at the moment. Just as an FYI, if you have a small ball team, I would not be running with Bogut who is a bad fit with your team, especially since he’s not going to be playing in back to back games.

      • http://www.facebook.com/steven.tran.3701 Steven Tran

        alright thanks for the tip.

        btw who should i be looking at getting for bogut? i picked him up waivers for trade purposes.

        Splitter and bogut are my only C. and i need at least one C . to fill up that spot.

  • zee

    I got an offer for Gortat for my Valanciunas. Should I take it? Going for FG, FT, blks, TO.
    On a side note, oh how the mighty have fallen. To Jermaine O Neal of all people.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I might except it; trying to buy low on Gortat in anticipation of a trade. Looks like he’s just about bottomed out. I like Valanciunas, but he’s a rookie and his upside is limited this season (his foul rate is very high, so even he he sticks as a starter, his minutes will probably be all over the place). Know that in terms of actual performance though Valanciunas has Gortat beat right now.

  • boobiejr

    should i drop valanciunas for terry? i have a small ball team. strangely enough, i am already pretty good at blocks, since i have anthony davis, kirilenko, larry sanders, amir johnson. the only thing valanciunas can offer me is rebounds and fg%, but with my small ball team, i think terry would be the better fit, since rondo and barbosa are out for the year. plus, boston has the best playoff schedule in my league 4-4-4.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yes, I would actually consider that move based on what you are saying about your team. All it took was multiple injuries to the Celtics backcourt, but Terry is actually playing well over his past few games – almost like the Terry we expected at the beginning of the year.