Day 102: The Usual and Unusual Suspects

Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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rockets-james-harden-three-point-celebration

Line of the Night: James Harden put up his second Line of the Night in as many games with 35 points, 13-16 from the field, 4 threes, 7 rebounds, and 11 assists (2.91 WARP). He is now the #1 Baller over the last 2 weeks. Not that he ever really fell off… I mean, he’s still #3 on the season… Harden is like Texas Barbeque… even when it’s bad, it’s still good.

Honorable Mentions: This is not the Unusual Suspects part… but that much should be obvious since right after Stephen Curry‘s 32 points, 6-6 from the line, 4 threes, 5 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals (2.83 WARP), we have Kevin Durant with 21 points, 7-7 from the line, 4 threes, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals (2.37 WARP). Interesting, though that Curry is the #4 player on the season, tied with Chris Paul. I think we’ve always said that if he stays health, he’s a first round pick… Let me rephrase that… IF he stays health, he’s a first round pick.

Next up: Al “AJ” Jefferson with 32 points, 15-22 from the field, 13 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (2.14 WARP).

I’m thanking my H2H Gods that Josh Smith had a good game with 23 points, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (1.94 WARP). I’m down 2 games going into the weekend in my work league, so I need that kind of line from every one of my guys. I’ve also got Tony Parker on my work team, and TP had 31 points, 10-16 from the field, 11-12 from the line, and 8 assists (1.84 WARP), so I’m sitting on a razor thin lead that could go either way over the next two days. Luckily, I’m leading that league, so I can afford to take a hit and still be in decent shape.

Carmelo Anthony can score. Evidence: 36 points, and 9 rebounds (1.93 WARP). As someone holding Danny Granger in the FBC Roto league, I’m really hoping that DG can cut into Paul George strong fantasy performances like 26 points, 5 threes, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists (1.91 WARP).

Finally, it feels like it’s been a while since I’ve mentioned Nicolas Batum, and seeing as how he’s only #67 over the last 2 weeks, that’s probably true. But last night Batum fought harden against Harden with 24 points, 6-6 from the line, 4 threes, and 3 blocks (1.82 WARP).

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Kendrick Perkins (7% owned) scored 17 points, on 8-9 from the field, so be careful to temper your expectations. Picking up Perkins is like going to that local Asian place… You know it probably won’t be good, but it’s easy and you might just get 9 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks (2.01 WARP) for free with your order.

Pick Up Lines: Unusual? Indeed. Let’s have a looksi (it’s like a kiki except even less people have heard of it).

Charlie Villanueva (1% owned) put in 33 minutes and scored 21 points, 5 threes, with 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks (1.86 WARP). That maybe get to be usual though… because:

Injury of the Night: Andre Drummond has a stress fracture in his back, meaning he’ll be sidelined for four to six weeks. Low down dirty shame since that guy was tearing it up… And without Tayshaun or Austin Day to pick up the slack now, the Pistons went with an 8 man rotation and Greg Monroe played 40 minutes. I wouldn’t picked up Villanueva unless you’re in a league that’s bigger than 12×13… but I would keep an eye on him no matter what size your league because when he gets minutes, he can put up numbers.

Mario Chalmers (42% owned) helped the Heat roll over the Clippers (despite the return of CP3 and Blake Griffin) by scoring 18 points, on 5 threes, with 3 steals in only 24 minutes (1.80 WARP). He’s worth owning in deeper leagues, but in those leagues, he probably already is.

I’m not sure how Danny Green can be ranked #85 on the season and only 44% owned, but if he’s available in your league, he shouldn’t be. Look at his 15 points, 5-8 from the field, 5 threes, and 2 blocks (1.71 WARP). He’s #17 over the last 2 weeks. There’s a lot of dead leagues out there…

Martell Webster (17% owned) has now had three really good (for a WW guy) games in a row, capping the latest with 16 points, 6-9 from the field, 3 threes, and 3 steals (1.41 WARP). With Bradley Beal back in Slumpsville, I think the Wizards are probably pretty happy with the rotation they have going, so definitely take a look at Webster. It took him a while to heat up, which is probably why his ownership percentage is still low, but he’s definitely worth owning.

Thabo Sefolosha (16% owned) calls to you like a siren from a rocky cliff. His 18 points, 7-11 from the field, 4 threes, and 2 blocks (1.32 WARP) are what he’s capable of on his “on” nights… but I’d say he’s probably only a good pick for Roto leagues where you can play him every night and not have to worry about the ups and downs.

If Gerald Henderson (24% owned) puts up 2 more games like this: 20 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals (1.28 WARP), then he’s a must add. Right now… just watch.

Two more guys: Jonas Valanciunas (20% owned) who has already been picked up our own Erik Ong in every league I’m in with him and by someone else in the league that Erik isn’t in. No question about this pickup. 14 points on 6-10 from the field, with 13 rebounds and 2 blocks.

And another big guy: Andrew Nicholson had the kind of game I expected from him after Glen Davis was declared OFS (Out For Season). After playing 27 minutes in the game before, Nicholson got 31 last night, going 9-13 to end up with 21 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 3 assists.

Biggest Loser: For all the good last night, there was a lot of bad… Granted, Chris Paul Chris Paul only played 19 minutes and for some reason, the Clippers brought him back against the defending World Champion Heat… Paul had 3 points (1-5 from the field), 1 rebounds, and 2 assists (-0.91 WARP). He’ll get better… Blake Griffin and Chauncey Billups also made appearances last night, though Griffin only sat for 2 games while this was Billups first game since December 3rd and only his 4th game of the season…

The Blazers just kind of let the Rockets slowly pull away, and a lot of the blame has to go to Wesley Matthews who only managed 2 points (1-9 from the field), 1 rebounds, and 3 assists in 34 minutes (-0.81 WARP).

I mentioned that Martell Webster was looking good… This is why: Bradley Beal managed only 3 points (1-5 from the field), 4 rebounds, and 1 assists to his 4 turnovers (-0.81 WARP).

You might not guess it from the 2 points, 5 rebounds and 2 turnovers, but Marcin Gortat actually played 26 minutes last night (-0.72 WARP). Ouch.

Finally, Klay Thompson has been good enough to almost crack the Top 50 for the season, but another couple of games with 9 points (4-14 from the field), 2 rebounds, 1 assists, and 6 turnovers (-0.69 WARP) and we might start to worry that he’s running out of gas…

outofgas-mal

Raise your hand (or leave a comment) if you get the reference to a 10 year old TV show

  • Jeremy

    Now that Drummond is out, would you recommend grabbing Nicholson or Valunciunas?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d take Valanciunas first.

      • Brian

        Valanciunas has more upside. Nicholson’s been getting minutes and doing mostly nothing with them

  • Rj

    Should I try to trade West + Nick Young for Joe Johnson + Hibbert? Worry about his value taking a hit when Granger returns. Thanks.

    14 team H2H Punting FG

    Holiday
    Isaiah Thomas
    Nelson
    Curry
    JR Smith
    Nick Young
    Lebron
    West
    Bargnani
    Al Jefferson
    Mullens
    Biyombo
    Belinelli

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      If you’re worried about someone taking a hit when Granger returns, then I’d be just as worried about Hibbert… I personally don’t think the drop from West to Hibbert is made up for by the rise from Young to Johnson. With J-Rich done for the season, I think Young could have at least as much value as Johnson going forward.

  • waywu2001

    “Ship like this, be with you ’til the day you die.” Or at least our memory for the show will.

  • Crooked Commish

    Shiny, Nels!

  • Jeremy

    Drop either Dudley or Prince for Danny Green?

    • Brian

      Either

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Prince is lower rated, so I’d say him first, but either one is worth it.

  • Eric

    In an H2H 12 Team League with 9 categories would you trade…

    1) Kevin Durant
    2) Monta Ellis
    3) Andre Miller
    4) Gortat

    for

    1) James Harden
    2) Stephen Curry
    3) Tyson Chandler
    4) Tristan Thompson

    • Brian

      It’s close but I’d probably hold, given Curry’s glass ankle

      • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

        Wow… that is tough… If Curry stays healthy that is a pretty big win for you… but I’m kind of with Brian… if you bet it all on Curry staying healthy, then you basically lose if he goes down. If it were just about anyone else, it would be a no-brainer, but with Curry, I think my risk aversion would win out and I would stick with Durant.

        • Brian

          If you’re in playoffs and in pretty good position, I’d hold. If you’re borderline and need to take some gambles to win the championship, then do it

        • Eric

          thanks, much appreciated!

      • Eric

        Thanks, really appreciate it. I guess with my ranking it’s not that great to take chances… I’ll have to keep looking around haha

  • Jarvis Varnado

    i’m thinking of trading cp3 for kyrie + a kicker due to the better playoff schedule. Thoughts? 3 game weeks with cp3 or 4 game weeks with kyrie?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Makes sense. Kyrie is pretty close to Paul so it’s almost a 1-1 trade right there, if you can drop a WW guy and pick up someone slightly better than I think it’s a win. If your playoffs start 4/1 and are only 2 rounds, then you get that extra game each week. You will lose a game on the week of 3/25 though where LAC plays 4 to CLE’s 3. Overall, though, I think it’s worth it.

      • Jarvis Varnado

        Currently pending: My cp3 + Splitter for his Kyrie and Amare. Dude’s thinking about it.

        I hope it works out….

  • Brian

    Hello! I actually have four questions: (9CAT H2H 10 Team League)

    1. Who has a better outlook for the rest of the season: J.R. Smith or Matthews?
    2. What do you guys think of trading Smith or Matthews for Ellis?
    2. Still stay patient with Hibbert? (BLKs are nice, FG% NOT nice)
    3. Should I hold onto Noah? He still has that injury. If you’ll suggest a trade, who should I target?

    Many thanks!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      1. It’s close, but I’d give the slight edge to Matthews, as he is the one of the two currently shooting above 40% from the floor. Iman Shumpert could also become a bigger deal down the stretch for the Knicks if he’s not traded.

      2. I’d rather have Matthews/Smith than Ellis based on the way he’s played since joining the Bucks. The GSW Ellis doesn’t exist anymore.

      2b. I think what you see is what you get with Hibbert this season. The return of Granger probably means that Hibbert is even more more marginalized the in the offense, but maybe the silver lining is that his FG% improves with Granger. Still, I don’t see how he gets any better this season really.

      4 Noah has always been an injury prone guy and it would not surprise me if he misses more time this season. I don’t see a problem if you want to trade for someone more durable. I think someone like AL Horford or Brook Lopez would be the ceiling of what you could get. But Nikola Vucevic would be a nice sneaky get in my opinion.

      • Brian

        Thanks a lot, Patrick!

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