Day 94: Where Kevin Durant is Back

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Alternate Title: Where the Grizz struggle to find warm bodies.

Line of the Night: By “back”, I mean because Kevin Durant went all of 8 days between his last LotN and this one where he had 27 points on 10-16 from the field, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists (1.34 WARP). Even though only 44 players played in NBA games last night, that’s still an impressive fantasy line that I’m sure any owner would be happy to have.

Honorable Mentions: Usually when there’s only 2 games on the schedule, the fantasy performances can be pretty mediocre and still make the Honorable Mentions… but check out these hot California and Oklahoma nights:

O.J. Mayo had 25 points, going 8-13 from the field with 3 threes, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists (1.32 WARP). He was followed up by David Lee‘s near triple double of 15 points, 20 rebounds, and 9 assists (1.10 WARP). Also in that game: Klay Thompson had 27 points on 11-18 from the field, with 3 threes (0.80 WARP), while Vince Carter had 22 points, 4 threes, 4 assists, and 2 steals (0.73 WARP), and Shawn Marion scored 18 points on 8-11 from the field with 17 rebounds (0.59 WARP). Vince Carter and Shawn Marion? I guess I should have saved the warm bodies for this part… Still, don’t let looks be deceiving… Without Dirk Nowitzki, who sat with a right adductor (inner thigh) strain, the Mavs ended up losing by three. Dirk is day-to-day, so Dirk owners need not worry too much… he probably just worked a bit too much too soon.

In the other game (OKC vs MEM), Mike Conley put up 17 points, 3 threes, 4 assists, and 3 steals (0.91 WARP) while teammate Zach Randolph somehow claims and Honorable Mention thanks to his 19 rebounds and 3 steals even in spite of his 9 points on 4-17 shooting (23.5%) (0.49 WARP). That kind of makes you scratch your head at the Biggest Loser selection down there, but the Player Rater has no human biases to cloud its judgement. And sometimes, its judgement is harsh.

Backing up KD was the ever faithful Russell Westbrook who had 21 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, and a temper tantrum (0.72 WARP). When you’re up by 25 Westy, that’s the time to just come down and bomb a random three, not try to back some guy down starting out at the three-point line.

Injury of the Night: Even though it happened on Wednesday and I believe was commented on in yesterday’s post, in case you missed it, tough break for Glen Davis who broke his foot, putting him out 8-12 weeks according to initial reports. The decision is easy for my H2H leagues because as a compassionate commissioner, I make them end before the actual end of the season. That means people in those leagues can pretty safely put Davis out of his misery (and looking at that Magic team, it is misery). If your league goes longer, it’s still probably for the best to leave Davis behind since he was only at #117 on the Player Rater anyway. Besides the already surging Nikola Vucevic, I’d say that Andrew Nicholson and Gustavo Ayon probably get some extra time… Ayon is probably the better pick since he played better (when he played) while Davis was out earlier this season.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Jerryd Bayless (12% owned at the time of the stats pull; up to 15% at the time of writing) had 23 points on 9-17 shooting with 2 threes, 3 rebounds, 6 assists and a steal (0.71 WARP). That’s Bayless’s 4th game over 30 minutes, making him the surprise winner of the Memphis deals (perhaps not the only one, but we’ll have to wait to see if there are others). With Wayne Ellington’s 16 minutes out of the way, Bayless is cleared for a some good minutes at SG. Not sure how long that will last, but if you’re in a Roto league, or a H2H league with daily changes, I’d jump on Bayless before Quincy Pondexter is recovered enough to resume play and before Austin Daye and Tayshaun Prince attempt to fill in for Rudy Gay, moving Tony Allen back to SG and Bayless back to the bench.

Pick Up Lines: Nick Collison (4% owned) had a strong night for the Thunder with 12 points, 4-4 from the line, and 7 rebounds (0.64 WARP). With a similar line (at least in 2 categories) Harrison Barnes (44% owned) had 12 points, 4-4 from the line, and 5 assists (0.44 WARP).

Carl Landry (44% owned) came back from a left shoulder contusion with 10 points and 6 rebounds (0.15 WARP).

And finally, Kendrick Perkins (8% owned) is inching towards being a deep league add with 7 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks (0.08 WARP).

Biggest Loser: While Zach Randolph shot only 23.5%, it was Marc Gasol who the Player Rater deemed the Biggest Loser despite his 16 points (4-5 from the line), 7 rebounds, and 3 assists. He did only shoot 40% on 15 attempts and also 4 turnovers leading to a -0.46 WARP. Sorry Marc. Tough break. I’m sure playing without Rudy Gay will get better once Jerryd Bayless stops taking all of Rudy’s shots and gives them back to you and Zach.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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  • Brian

    Great post once again! I am offered Horford, Paul George, and Rubio for Aldridge, Matthews, and J.R Smith? Should I take it? I’m in 9cat H2H 10 team league! Thanks and more power!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yes, I would make that trade immediately. Horford is a slight downgrade from Aldridge, but to pick up George in the deal is huge. He’s been the best player in that deal over the last few weeks of games. I’m not overly worried about the return of Granger, I think it’s a great deal for you.

      • Jessie Ngo

        Should I trade Randoplh or Josh smith for horford?

        • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

          I’d do Randolph for Horford in a second (if I was getting Horford).

          • Jessie Ngo

            How likely does it look for Josh to be traded? Will Al go nuts this season? I feel as if Randolph has reached plateau but perhaps the recent Rudy Gay trade will increase his stats?

          • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

            I’d say that Smith is fairly high on the list of guys likely to be traded provided someone wants to take the risk on him because he’s a free agent after this season. I doubt Horford would go nuts if Smith was traded, but he’s probably see a slight bump in value, just like Randolph should now that Gay is gone.

          • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

            I don’t know who to trade Smith for. I need the blocks and tried to get Serge. Didn’t work out too well.

          • Razvan

            Marc Gasol?

      • Brian

        again, concur lol

  • Jessie Ngo

    Drop Kawhi to pick up Beasley?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Depends on what you are looking for. Beasley is going to score a hell of a lot more than Leonard and their rebounding is similar, but Leonard is going to hit more threes, steal the ball more and turn over the ball waaaaaay less. But, Beasley is shooting about 60% from the floor over the last week, which is totally not sustainable, which is why I’d rather have Leonard.

      • Brian

        concur

    • Jessie Ngo

      I didn’t know there was another Jessie Ngo in the world.

      • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

        Hahahaha! Imposter! You better get a Disqus profile pic up!

        • Jessie Ngo

          i will just connect with facebook instead of google

          • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

            Dueling Jessie Ngo’s, I love it.

        • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

          See? All better.

    • Brian

      don’t do it

  • Mike

    Would you guys trade Gortat for Jameer Nelson? I have too many bigs.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Nelson has outperformed Gortat by a pretty healthy margin this year, so it’s good for you in terms of overall performance. But Nelson’s injury history hasn’t always been pretty, so given the extra risk you’d be taking on with the trade, I’d call it pretty even. Go for it if you need the guard and don’t mind the risk of Nelson getting hurt.

      • Mike

        If I make this trade my pg’s are Curry, Irving, Lowry and Nelson. Talk about injury prone!

    • Razvan

      I say its a wash, you could try to get more though.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

    Beasley or Foye?

    • Jessie Ngo

      lol! Didnt know somebody posted stuff here with the same name as me. Since I am new here I will give u dibs on the name. I would take beasley, gives u more than just threes.

      • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

        Too funny, where are you from?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I agree. As much as I might regret saying this, I think you have to go with Beasley because he’s playing much better than Foye since Lindsey Hunter took over the Suns.

      • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

        I am already leading in threes, would you advise me to drop Foye and take on Beasley?

  • Jeremy

    Accidentally posted this on yesterdays post: What do you guys think of KD and Conley/Lawson for Chris Paul, Ilyasova, and Tyreke Evans?

    • Jeremy

      own KD in 10-team 8-cat h2h, looking for more depth

      • brian

        Yea, agree with Razvan. In fantasy value, KD’s rank as 1st is not linear with those behind him, he is worth so much more than even LBJ who’s worth more than CP3. IMO, you should not trade KD for anything unless you’re somehow projected to miss playoffs. In that case, KD should get you CP3 and Ersan easily in a 1 for 2, and you’d still be on the losing side of that trade.

        • Brian

          KD is having a historic fantasy season. it would take at least two top 10 1st rounders for me to give him up and one of them has to be a top5

    • Razvan

      I won’t trade KD for Lebron, so go figure. It will take 2 first rounders for me to give up KD.

  • sanny350z

    With Sullinger out for the season, who a better pick up: Jeff Green or Brandon Bass

    • Razvan

      Bass, i think Green is sleeping.

      • Bonbon

        Jeff Green for me. He has the talent, the physical gifts, and Celts got nowhere to go but “blow up” the team now. Green needs to play for either a bargaining chip showcase or player development.

  • Guest

    I added Bledsoe and dropped Hawes.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

    I dropped Hawes for Bledsoe. Who will be most productive this season?

    • Razvan

      Still trying to find my crystal ball. Probably neither one

  • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

    Trade Josh Smith for Klay Thompson?

    • Razvan

      No way.

      • Bonbon

        Definitely no way.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

    Who is the man to own now that Jared Sullinger is out?

    • Razvan

      Let me get my crystal ball

      • brian

        hahaha, no need, the answer is fab melo, he just got called up, has to be.

    • zee

      Kevin Garnett.
      really though, Celtics aren’t very deep. best I would expect is Jeff Green or Brandon Bass, both who are pretty boring options

      • http://www.facebook.com/jessie.ngo Jessie Ngo

        KG is already owned. I don’t have pieces to trade for him.

        • zee

          Right, my point was that the Celtics don’t really have an exciting beneficiary to pick up in lieu of Sullinger’s injury, similar to what happened with Rondo.

  • Red

    Thoughts on Matt Barnes? Projections going forward? Should I still hold him or drop him for someone hot?

  • Bonbon

    I want to do a 2 for 1 trade (primarily so that i can get a stream spot. i am finding it really boring to not being able to stream).

    My possible players for the 2 for 1 trade are as follows:
    - Klay Thompson
    - Amir Johnson
    - N Batum
    - Tyreke Evans
    - OJ Mayo
    Most of these guys are shooters (with lower FG%), except for Amir. There is question mark about his JS with Bargs and JV still on the payroll (so far).

    What sort of Big man can I get for 2 of the above players? Can I grab a Marc Gasol?