Day 93: Where the Raptors Go All in on Gay

Memphis Grizzlies Media Day

The big news of last night didn’t come from the court (unless you happen to be a fan of Matt Barnes’ MMA style of basketball), rather it’s the three team trade between Memphis, Toronto and Detroit. The trade saw Memphis send Rudy Gay and Hamed Haddadi to the Raptors for Jose Calderon (and his expiring contact) as well as Ed Davis and a second round pick. Calderon was then routed to Detroit for Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye. The move saves Memphis a ton of money that they owed Gay, saves the Pistons a bunch of money, and nets Toronto… Rudy Gay.

As I noted in the comments of the blog last night, for a trade with some high profile names and so many moving parts, it will probably end up having surprisingly little impact. The trade does mean that Lowry is now the clear starting PG for the Raptors, but his problem this year had much more to do with injuries than Calderon. He should be huge if he can stay healthy, but that’s what we’ve been saying all year. The trade is probably worst for Ed Davis, who goes from 35 minutes a night and a starting job in Toronto to backing up Zach Randolph in Memphis. Maybe he carves out some deep league value off the bench, but he can most likely be dropped in standard leagues. The trade is also a negative for the Raptors wings, specifically Alan Anderson, who was doing enough to be worth owning in many leagues. Not anymore.

Prince heads to Memphis to take over for Gay, but he’s about to turn 33-years old and is Tayshaun Prince. His value shouldn’t change and I don’t mean that as a complement. But Prince has averaged 6 less shots per game this year than Gay, so there is some opportunity for guys like Randolph, Gasol and Conley to have a slight uptick in value. Or maybe the Grizzlies offense just completely goes to hell without Gay.

For the Pistons, Calderon will presumably take over the starting PG job since in addition to being an expiring contact, he’s a much better PG than what the Pistons have at the moment. And if last night’s game is any indication, the team will slide Kyle Singler from SG to SF and use Knight as their SG. Maybe a few more minutes for Singler in that situation, but he was horrible last night, so I wouldn’t expect much of a bump in value.

As for Gay, we’ll have to see how he, Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and eventually Bargnani all mesh together, but I’d assume he’d be able to get his. It’s more likely that DeRozan or Bargnani becomes the odd man out in that situation.

Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night : The Charlotte Bobcats are like an underlit bar right before last call – they make everyone look hot – including Danny Green (43% owned), who had the best fantasy line of the night against Charlotte with 17 points, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks (2.00 WARP) in only 29 minutes on the court. Green has been starting for the Spurs nearly all season and, other than a 16 minute dud of a game against Phoenix last weekend, he’s been solid over the past couple of weeks. Green is not so good that he’s a must add, but he makes a nice plug and play and streaming option in daily leagues.

Honorable Mentions: Al Horford had a game for himself in the Hawks 93-92 win over the Raptors, scoring 22 points including the go-ahead basket at the end of the game, adding 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 blocks (1.89 WARP). Horford could really end up benefiting from what seems like the inevitable Josh Smith trade, and might be a guy you want to target in fantasy leagues.

Also for the Hawks, Kyle Korver continued his insane run where he’s shooting 60% from the floor, scoring 17 points on 6-10 from the field, with 5 threes, 6 rebounds and 2 steals (1.79 WARP). While that FG% is eventually going to come crashing down to earth, he’ll get huge minutes all season thanks to the Lou Williams injury. And amazingly for a team that barely squeaked out a win over the Raptors, they had three players with top-10 fantasy performances last night. Josh Smith finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks (1.55 WARP) while playing 38 minutes.

Danny Green wasn’t the only Spur who benefited from the Bobcats. Kawhi Leonard had an efficient 18 points on 7-10 from the field, adding 4 threes, 5 rebounds and 2 steals (1.86 WARP) as Tim Duncan sat for the fourth game in a row with a sore knee.

Chris Paul missed yet another game with a bruised knee cap, but that didn’t matter to Blake Griffin, who led the Clippers to a win with 26 points, 13 rebounds and 3 steals (1.75 WARP). Eric Bledsoe was also great in the game filling in for Paul, scoring 10 points with 10 assists and 6 steals. The only blemish on his game is that he turned the ball over 6 times, oh, and shot 3-14 from the floor. I’d put him down in the waiver wire section, but he’s owned in every league that I currently play in, as well as every really competitive league out there .

Michael Fucking Beasley is one Sun who has really enjoyed the team’s coaching change so far. Beasley scored 27 points in a win over the Lakers, adding 6 rebounds and 5 steals (1.62 WARP) in 34 minutes off the bench. Beasley now appears to be the Suns 6th man and while he’s still been a little all over the place from game to game, he’s proven that he’s now worth a look in most leagues if he’s available on your wire.

Speaking of the Lakers, Dwight Howard left last night’s game after aggravating his shoulder injury. It’s an injury that everyone acknowledges will eventually require surgery, it’s just a matter of whether Dwight will be able to hold off and play through the pain during the season.

And in other injury news, Glen Davis has a broken left foot and could be done for the season. If so, look for no one to really step up in that PF spot again, although Nikola Vucevic should be huge all season.

Pick Up Lines: Nate Robinson (24% owned) continues to play like he thinks he’s Derrick Rose, scoring 24 points, on 9-11 from the field, with 4 assists and 3 steals (1.67 WARP) in a win over the Bucks. In fact, the Bulls two high scorers in the game were bench players – Robinson and Jimmy Butler (16% owned), who had 18 points on 8-12 shooting (1.07 WARP). The return of Rose looms over Robinson, but for now he’s played like a top-60 fantasy player over the last two weeks and is work a look in most leagues if you need some short-term pop in your lineup.

Two of the more inconsistent players in the league this year had good games last night. Spencer Hawes (49% owned) had 12 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 blocks (1.44 WARP) against the Wizards, but was completely embarrassed by John Wall as he went up for a dunk. And Mario Chalmers (42% owned) finished with 11 points, 4 assists and 3 steals (1.26 WARP) in a win over the Nets. Chalmers is averaging 1.4 threes and 1.6 steals a game this year, but the rest of his line is anemic. Stay away from both guys if you can in leagues.

Lance Stephenson (3% owned) had his second very good game in a row for the Pacers, scoring 12 points and adding 11 rebounds and 5 assists (1.08 WARP) in 33 minutes against the Pistons. Stephenson has been so consistently bad all season in the starting role for the injured Danny Granger, that I’d have to see another good game from him before I even thought about picking him up.

And we have to mention Samuel Dalembert, who has returned from the dead for the Bucks with his second double-double in a row, finishing with 14 and 13 and 4 blocked shots. Now before you run out and pick him up, in the two games that he exploded, Larry Sanders was in foul trouble in one and missed the other with an illness, so there have been special circumstances. Still, this is not something that Sanders owners should be happy to see, as it could lead to Dalembert stealing some minutes from Sanders down the road.

Biggest Loser: Matt Barnes went all Ron Artest in last night’s Clippers game and was ejected in the second quarter when he was called for a flagrant-2 after going for the throat of Greg Stiemsma. Barnes finished with 0 points, 0 rebounds and 1 assist (-0.85 WARP) in 6 minutes before his ejection. The league will review the incident and could also decide to suspend Barnes additional game, so there’s that too.

Among those guys who actually played, Deron Williams was shut down by the Heat, scoring only 9 points in the loss, and finishing with 1 rebound, 5 assists and 6 turnovers (-0.62 WARP). Williams had been playing very well leading up to this game, so I don’t think it’s a game to worry too much about.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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  • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

    H2H avgs-based pts league (ast = 2, pts/reb/blk/stl = 1, TOs = -1). Drop Dudley to add any of these?

    Beasley – F
    J. Butler – F
    Bledsoe – G
    Nate Rob – G
    Barea – G
    Drummond – C
    Aminu – F
    N. Young – G

    I’m currently starting Asik in my final F spot, and Dudley, JR, and Meka are competing for one flex spot.

    • brian

      I’m liking Nate Rob for this week as he’s on fire right now and can always chip in some decent AST. But for the rest of the season, Drummond for me hands down. I think he’s a must add, his per 36 are so insane and his minutes are trending up. So short-term, Nate Rob, Bledsoe; long term Drummond.

      • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

        cheers for the thoughts.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Barea has too many TOs. I would go with Bledsoe>Nate>Drummond>Beasley>Butler for your Dudley.

  • http://twitter.com/VragSpark Roger Shoff

    Would you recommend selling high on Josh Smith? If so what kind of value do you think I could get out of him and D-Rose? Punting assists. Thanks ahead of time.

    • Razvan

      Drose maybe a 3rd-4th rounder at this point, you should wait until he shows us he s back and get better players in return. I would sell Smith, someone like Gay or Cousins maybe.

    • brian

      I’m not sure about it being high to sell Smith, but if you want to move him, now is ok. Keep in mind, after a trade, he might put up more efficient numbers. His name recognition has been worth far more than his production, esp. in the %s. I would pull up the player rater and offer him to anyone in the 2nd round. The competitive players in your league probably won’t bite, but if there’s an owner that loves his name value, then you could get a good trade return.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      If you think he will be traded, hold. If you think he will stay, sell.

  • brian

    Going to post this here so more people see it as I’m interested in other thoughts. A reply to yesterday’s Razvan and Patrick posts re: Gay trade in the comments section:

    This is a really fascinating trade for me. I’m with Patrick in that I don’t like this trade for TOR b/c it reeks of getting a name recognized “superstar” at all costs. But Gay’s been pretty bad this year (14.3 PER is ugh for max money). This doesn’t really solve their SF situation either, they just added another SF that can’t shoot to a rotation of DeRozan, Fields and Ross (so far this year). Alan Anderson is their best wing shooter, but with a contract of 800k, coach has to keep the big money guys happy right.

    With MEM, they get to shed their first big Heisley contract and gain flexibility. I wonder how much of this trade was initiated by Hollinger or new owner Pera. I find it curious to blow up part of this core this year when they have a small chance of winning a championship imo (Zach Lowe’s 5% theory – GMs tell him that rule of thumb is to go all out for a championship if the team has a 5% chance of winning it). Although it makes their earlier Cavs trade look unneeded and foolish (giving up that 1st round pick and all). But they gain flexibility and have a great young piece to replace the declining Randolph should they choose to shed more Heisley era contracts.

    Hopefully Calderon can execute a watchable offense in DET and actually set up Monroe now. I think Monroe may benefit a lot from having a competent offensive PG to work with.. I’m glad DET realized that the Prince contract was a mistake and are finally progressing forward with something (Calderon at PG and moving Knight to SG). Too many years sunk with Charlie V, Ben Gordon, Prince contracts.

    All in all, pretty fun trade to think about, very nuanced imo. And as others have said, don’t see much fantasy fallout coming from this, there isn’t a sudden clearing of playing time for any waiver wire players. Gay may get more fga (I’m not sure if a good thing), Monroe, Knight, Drummond may get more consistent offensively and Prince will be as he has been with 32 min/game.

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      as a Pistons, fan, i’m loving the trade, as they can now chase a more skilled SF this summer in free agency and build around them, Moose, Drummond, and BK.

      • brian

        haha, a pistons fan, that must be painful these past few years. Yea, they have some great pieces. potential for a monstrous front court.

      • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

        They’d better keep Calderon. Trade Stuckey, and ride Monroe and #FreeDrummond like there’s no tomorrow. Dang! The Pistons are going to be fun to watch. Not since Laimbeer’s ref shouting, have they been this entertaining. So many, “Calderon-to-Drummond for the alley-opp!” Think Lob City 2.0. Can’t wait.

    • Razvan

      I really think Gay will be much better in toronto, FG% wise and general implication in games. I think he smelled something fishy from the begging and he did not play like he can, psychologically. I think Toronto as a city and as an organization will suit Gay like a glove, he will play with passion again. Many times i’ve seen a lackadaisical Gay playing, where lots of times he simply vanished from the game. He is wanted in Toronto and that will sure help him.

      Calderon is just another guard in detroit, they just can’t seem to have any idea how to play the game, which strategy to adopt and what can each player give them during games. They cannot use players at their best potential for some reason. With 4 guards on the roster that each want to play i think no one will be fantasy relevant which will not affect monroe.

      All this minute game that coaches play with players is mind blowing, if the a guy can play and it helps the team better than other players on the roster ride him for god sakes, win some games won’t you. Not the case in DET the past 5 years.

      • brian

        Yea, that’s possible with Gay. I remember when he signed that contract, I don’t think he was expecting a max. When they offered, he just took it and ran with it. It could very well be that he’ll become a first option star now that he’s the undisputed alpha player.

        I like Calderon for DET simply as a competent and reliable playmaker to set up other guys. They haven’t had reliable playmaking from the PG position in so long. But, yea, that team is a mess as far as roles. I see Calderon starting at PG, Knight at SG for rest of year and Stuckey and Bynum alternating 6 man. Bynum and Stuckey will probably become irrelevant fantasy wise, with Knight doing similar to before but with maybe better %’s, good 3s and points. Having Calderon, Knight and Singler gives some serious floor spacing.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I couldn’t have put it any better myself. The potential Calderon effect on a guy like Monroe is something that hadn’t occurred to me, but definitely makes sense. Calderon could definitely mean good things for Monroe.

      • brian

        Yea, I don’t want to overstate Calderon’s ability to suddenly turn Monroe’s fg% or pts higher, but I think he could very well have a positive effect on that (and apparently so do the Pistons front office). Calderon can run a PnR and may be the first pg that Monroe has ever played with that can.

  • Bonbon

    In a roto league here, I received an offer:
    (My) Nash, Kawhi, Ibaka for (his) Griffin, Vucevic, Gordon.

    I haven’t been too enamoured by Nash’s sudden resistance to pass, and Ibaka has been playing average lately. I am very keen on Vucevic and Griffin (although I reckon once cp3 is back, he will slow down). I am not keen on Gordon.

    My team is currently way down the ladder but I have got the edge on games played. My blocks stats is way up, but my. Rebounds and points are crap.

    Do you guys reckon this is a good deal?

    • pewpew

      take this deal and run

    • Razvan

      Yup good deal, do it. Take a look at the warp numbers too, just to make sure.

      • bluesmiller

        Griffin has actually improved his FT% a little, he’s 70% over the last month or so

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Those guys will swing those key cats that you need, for sure. If you have enough FT% boosting guys like Durant et al, then Griffin will work. I would counter with a “smaller deal” removing Griffin from the mix, and just trade for Vucevic. “Take what you want, and leave nothing behind.” – Capt. Jack Sparrow.

    • Brian

      i like the nash/kawhi/ibaka side way better. if this is a 9cat league, ibaka is 1st rd value, kawhi is 3rd rd value, nash is 6th rd value vs griffin 3rd rd value, vucevic is 4th rd value, and gordon is 7th rd value (per game)

      • Brian

        in other words, i’d definitely trade your lead in blocks (ibaka) for a much better package to help you in pts/rebs like David Lee +

        • Bonbon

          Ah I have accepted the trade.

          My reasons with this trade were as follows:
          - Nash (based on last few games) has become less the old supreme PG and more of a jumpshooter. His averages on the season may be good, but lately it’s been poor. Given that they’ve started winning since he changed his role … I reckon they’ll keep his role as is.
          - Griffin’s FTs punt: Yes this was a big red flag. But for the past month, he has been better. Hope this trend continues.
          - Kawhi: He’s been excellent but he is a slow cooking roast. Given my bottom positioning, I feel I need fast-food Maccas instead of a slow cooking roast.
          - Ibaka: He’s been excellent on the season, but pretty average for the past month. He is still blocking heaps, but his other contribution seemed to have slown down. I see this trade as a “sell high”.
          Thanks for the tips though. They really helped form my thinking. In the end, I felt I needed to gamble given my current standing on the ladder.

  • mattyice

    I want to make a play for al horford but I’m not sure who to trade him. I have tony Parker, chalmers, jr smith, korver, Matt Barnes, granger, vucevic, speights, lbj, ak, bropez. What would be best for my team? Daily changes, h2h, 9 cat, 16 teams 11 players

    • Razvan

      You wull have to give 2 of your best players, because you need parker and lopez and vucevic is on the rise so the only one left is ak, but i am sure he will want another great player in return. Don’t think its the right situation for you. Why are you holding onto Chalmers?

      • Brian

        in a 16team league, chalmers provides some 3′s and STL value. he’s ranked #130 in 9cat leagues

        • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

          I agree, Chalmers does have value in a 16-team league, despite his shortcomings. He is your most expendable players because he lacks any sort of upside, but I’m guessing your wire isn’t actually overflowing with talent in a 16-team league.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      I agree with Razvan, dump Chalmers, like yesterday’s news. Offer Granger, maybe? Since he will just hurt your team’s current FG% when he returns.

  • zee

    What kind of stats are you expecting with Bargnani’s return? Surely not must-own with Rudy Gay in the mix and a new PG in Lowry? Would you drop Eric Bledsoe for him?

    What about Favors or Drummond, both stashes who I expect to outplay Bargnani after the trade deadline?

    • Razvan

      Bargnani will be traded, i think for Gasol. Perfect fit for both teams and Raptors are on spending mode, Toronto is a nice city that Pau will like a lot, makes sense to everybody.

      • zee

        That trade does make a lot of sense, but I haven’t read about it anywhere.

        I have both Favors and Drummond currently. I expect Favors to blow up after the trade deadline, and Drummond to blow up whenever the Pistons start tanking (#FreeDrummond), which should be soon…

        Basically I’m just struggling to find a reason I should drop any of those for Bargnani.

        • brian

          I wouldn’t drop Favors or Drummond for Bargs, Bledsoe could be argued depending on how you predict their respective situations play out. Favors and Drummond are already outproducing whatever Bargs was doing earlier this year, and they have way more upside.

  • OKman

    Thoughts on dropping Derozan for Jimmy Butler? Gay’s arrival has to cut into Derozan’s touches and if he doesn’t score/get FT’s he doesn’t do anything at all while Butler had another good game off the bench. This is a points based league – everything is 1 pt except rebs/asts (0.5)

    • Razvan

      Jesus now, keep Derozan, I reckon he will become a stat filler not that gay/lowry shoot the ball, derozan is def a keeper.

      • OKman

        Haha I hope you’re right. If Derozan does turn into a stat filler, that would be fantastic

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      While I disagree that DeRozan will morph into a stat filler, I doubt that Butler’s value will hold long enough to surpass what’s left of DeRozan’s once Rose returns.

  • sanny350z

    Now that Big baby out with foot surgery, who would be the better add; Ayon or Nicholson?

    • brian

      Al Harrington

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      I would say Hedo.

  • http://www.facebook.com/dan.gong.944 Dan Gong

    What is your secret to y’all’s productivity? I assume you all run this blog, have a family, and have full time jobs.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      We share the load, and we’ve foregone competitive eating, skydiving, and ninja training as our other hobbies and just focus on this for our extra-curricular entertainment. It’s a labor of love.

  • Razvan

    Just traded Dwill.Monroe for Wade,Vucevic. I needed FG%,STL,BLK,TO. I am very happy, this is the roto league i own :)

    WARP wise i win by .20

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Assuming you can keep Paul George, a George + 1 for Batum would work for you. Mind you though, George’s FG% isn’t too fantastic either.

      • Razvan

        Yeah and Granger is coming back, its a roto $ league, batum is 23$ and george is 1$ :)

  • Jeremy

    What do you guys think of KD and Conley/Lawson for Chris Paul, Ilyasova, and Tyreke Evans?