Day 92: Klay Thompson Shows Upside Potential

Clay-Pottery

Line of the Night: So, Klay Thompson can play like we all thought he could. He’s shown flashes of it before, but after he took over last night and scored 32 points, with 6 threes, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks (2.21 WARP), I am certain that he is more than the lump of clay with a lot of potential that he was last year, or the molded clay headed for the kiln that he’s shown this year. He will become one of those lovely pots you see above, even if he had to go Tonya Harding on Stephen Curry’s ankle to get there. (Curry missed last night’s game, as did Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes, putting the game squarely on at least one of Thompson’s shoulders [the other was on David Lee's]) KT (does he have a real nickname?) played 43 minutes in the game, which is above his average, but actually not his high this season, so he’ll probably continue this race towards the Top 30 that he’s currently on.

Honorable Mentions: David Lee is on the opposite trajectory of Thompson at this point, but without Curry or Barnes, he also took advantage going for 20 points on 8-12 from the field, 4-4 from the line, with 13 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 steals (2.07 WARP). And Jarrett Jack also stepped up, even from the way he’s been playing recently, with 26 points, 11-18 from the field, 3 threes, and 12 assists (1.53 WARP). The Warriors crushed the Cavs (to be expected), but Tristan Thompson also showed his potential to become a nice piece of pottery with a double-double of 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 steals (1.47 WARP).

LaMarcus Aldridge helped Portland stretch for the win over Dallas with 29 points, 12-20 from the field including the game winning shot, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocks (2.21 WARP). He got help from a very efficient performance by J.J. Hickson who had 26 points, 9-13 from the field, 8-8 from the line, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks (2.03 WARP). Hickson is shooting 67% from the line for the season, though, so don’t expect him to get up in here with WARP scores like that all the time. On the losing side, Darren Collison put up 17 points, on 6-10 from the field, with 3 threes, 9 assists, and 3 steals (1.78 WARP). Side note: Dirk Nowitzki is starting to really get his minutes up there now, so that’s good for fantasy owners even if it’s just brought the Mavs to 7-7 for the month of January.

Eric Gordon put up 25 points, 5-5 from the line, and 6 threes (1.79 WARP) against the Lakers, but LA continued to play this new game where they pass the ball to each other and actually win games. Dwight Howard didn’t do a lot of that passing, but he did score 24 points on 9-13 from the field, with 5 steals, 4 blocks and managed 6-11 from the line (1.45 WARP).

Finally, Brandon Jennings helped the Bucks to a 27 point win over Detroit with his 30 points, 5 threes, and 6 assists (1.31 WARP).

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: You know we’re more than half way through the season when Andre Drummond can beast it out with 18 points, 9-15 from the field, 18 rebounds, and 2 steals (1.60 WARP) and he’s still only 39% owned. It happens every year, and while it’s not something you really need to worry about in an individual league, it starts to make me feel like a broken record when we keep repeating the same guys as WW picks because the majority of leagues have become stagnant like puddles after a summer rain.

Pick Up Lines: Mike Dunleavy (43% owned) is not stagnant, though. While his 17 points, and 5 rebounds (1.16 WARP) aren’t really indicative of how he’s gotten close to being a Top 50 player over the last 2 weeks, his 7-13 shooting and 2 threes are. If he’s available, take a look at Dunleavy as a high-FG%, high Rebound Shooting Guard (good for Big Ball teams).

Earl Clark (22% owned) continues to tear it up in his new role as the Lakers new starting PF with 20 points, 8-11 from the field, 4 threes, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists (1.03 WARP). Yes, you read that right: 4 threes. Clark is averaging 1 three per game over his last 11 games (he’s started the last 12). He did have 6 turnovers as well last night, though… but is anyone else thinking Ryan Anderson here? I’m not saying, I’m just saying…

Samuel Dalembert (33% owned) continues to frustrate owners with the occasional 12 points, 4-4 from the line, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks (0.85 WARP), and yet he’s only up to #171 (from 202) over the last 2 weeks.

Tyler Zeller (24% owned) continues to make his way out of the cellar (see what I did there?) with 16 points, 6-9 from the field, 4-4 from the line, and 5 assists (0.81 WARP). And I can say: Finally a guy that I picked up who is actually playing well instead of totally falling off!

And finally, a real WW pickup Marreese Speights (7% owned) had his 3rd good game in a row off the bench for the Cavs with 12 points, 5 rebounds, 4-8 shooting from the field and 4-4 from the line. Speights is actually up to 9% owned already just since we pulled the stats for this post (and that’s even after Patrick already picked M-Speezy up last week in the three leagues I’m in with him). Grab him before he gets up to 39% owned like Andre Drummond!

Biggest Loser: Elton Brand will probably get to be more and more irrelevant the more Dirk’s minutes climb. Brand had just 2 points (1-6 from the field), 2 rebounds, and 1 assist last night (-0.88 WARP). He’s only at 59% owned, though, so perhaps people will drop him for Speights and then we can stop talking about Brand down here and get Speights up into the Honorable Mentions (okay, not really. I don’t think Speights will have many games worthy of an Honorable Mention)

Then there’s Larry Sanders who is up to #69 over the last 2 weeks, but last night had just 3 points (1-4 from the line), 3 rebounds, 0 assists, and only 1 block (-0.76 WARP). At least give us some blocks Larry! That’s all we really want from you!

Remember how I mentioned Earl Clark up there? Well, the guy who’s place he took isn’t look so hot… Pau Gasol isn’t looking all that bad either, though, as he came up lucky 7′s last night with 7 points (only 1-4 from the field, though), 7 rebounds, and 7 assists (-0.23 WARP). I know it’s not what people expected, but if Pau can average 7 assists a game, you could probably get some good value for him by sending him to a Small Ball team who wants a passing PF. And despite that 1-4, his FG% is actually up more than 10% on his YTD number over the last 7 games.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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  • LukeAndButch

    Traded Pau Gasol for Larry Sanders. Did I win this trade even if Pau gets traded?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Assuming you needed the Blocks and Rebounds, then yes.

  • Slick

    14 team h2h 9 cat..got offered lin and earl clark for faried and martell webster…thoughts on the trade

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      It’s a pretty fair trade based on current levels of production… I would be a bit hesitant about trading a proven guy like Faried for someone who just started getting big minutes in Clark. You’re basically trading FG% and low TOs for Assists and Steals. If that’s what you need, then go for it.

      • Slick

        I punt fg and to’s.. My thinking is Lin and faried are equal values with potential inconsistency added in from both but i dont see faried beasting in denver with their depth and playing for karl..I think clark has more upside than martell whose basically 3s and points on 41% fg

  • Razvan

    Just traded Jennings for Pierce and Nash, Pierce will go insane from now on. Its a H2H scoring league. Warp combined i’m +0.20 i think i did well :)

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Yeah, seems like a win to me.

    • http://twitter.com/TrevorWilliamK Trevor William Koch

      I would have veto’d that immediately if that were in my league. You came up hard.

      • Razvan

        You cannot veto that, you only veto obvious unbalanced trades. Example:

        This guy traded away Pau Gasol for Ilyasova 2 weeks ago when he sucked ass, is it vetoable now?

        People have different views/are dumber than others, you should not interfere with human nature, as a LM, unless its too obvious.

  • sanny350z

    Trade Jeff Teague for Kyle Lowry? Lowry is easily a top 20 player but I am fearful of lowry injury history and with Lou Williams out, Teague is going to get all the minutes he can handle. Should I do this trade?

    • Razvan

      Its so complicated now, Calderon was just traded, lowry will play with Rudy Gay, who knows.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      There is certainly a big risk associated with the move, but if you can still get Lowry in light of the big NBA trade that just went down, I would make that move. The upside is simply too tempting to pass up, even if Lowry is an injury prone malcontent. He’s worth twice as many wins as Teague in an H2H league when healthy.

  • Razvan

    Great title and pic Nels :)

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I guess that makes Nels Charles Barkley? They do both wax their eyebrows, so they have that in common.

  • Velvet

    Hi Nel,

    I got Erik’s opinion on this trade. But after last night’s outburst by klay what do you think of this trade?

    Joe Johnson + Klay Thompson for Kyle Korver and OJ Mayo?

    The reason for this trade is I want to win in fg% and maintain my 3s. Thanks!

    • Razvan

      I say its a coin toss, you won’t gain or lose anything, unless you really like the upside of the other too i don’t see why would you make such a deal. It’s too even to do it, your players are more solid IMO.

    • Velvet

      Thanks razvan for your input. I did a dumb trade earlier this season trading brook lopez for Tyson chandler cause I was worried about his foot injury. I lost my first round pick love too. Currently I’m 2nd place in my league.

      Pg: Darren collision
      Sg: klay/joe Johnson/
      Sf: Andrei kirilenko/earl Clark/luol deng/ Matt Barnes/ Shawn Marion
      Pf: serge Ibaka/ Ed Davis
      C: Tyson chandler/robin Lopez/Marc gasol

      As you can see I don’t have any stand out super star but my team is built now to win FG/ft/reb/blk/to/3.

      Klay and joe’s FG percent arnt exactly great. That’s why I was thinking about this trade. Hopefully you can see where I’m coming from :)

      • Velvet

        Well I might a well ask this too since Rudy Gay just got traded to the raptors. Would you drop Ed Davis for Chris Kaman?

        • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

          Kaman? No, He’s currently out indefinitely with a concussion and was playing like crap before he got hurt. I might drop Davis for someone else (Amir Johnson, Kyle Singler, Marreese Speights), but not Kaman.

      • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

        My take is that it’s also a fairly even trade that I would be inclined not to make. Thompson has been playing better and better as the season has gone on (while Mayo has started to fade a little). Thompson is also shooting 44% from the floor over the last month of the season, so he’s really not that much different in terms of FG% than Mayo.

        Korver is shooting lights out over the last couple of weeks,but his FG% near 60% over that span is not sustainable. His value is at a high point right now and he’s due for a slump any day. I’d feel a little more comfortable with the guys you have going forward.

  • Razvan

    Rudy Gay was traded to Toronto, Ed Davis, Prince(probably) to Memphis and Calderon to detroit.

    • Pavel

      what you think is gonna be the fallout of this?

      • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

        I’ll get up a post about it if I have time, but my first take is that not too much changes considering the names involved. Pluses for Lowry, Kyle Singler, Amir Johnson and whoever on the Grizzlies soaks up Gay’s 6 shots a game more than Price (probably a combo of a bunch of guys). Minuses for the Raptors wings, the Pistons PGs and Ed Davis. But nothing swings huge one way or another.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Not sure what the Toronto was thinking with this deal…way to move Calderon’s contract to pick up even more money and potentially a worse contract.

      • Razvan

        True, but they got so much talent for the money and a nice piece to build around, he’s a great player. They gave up just Davis, Calderon was already on their unload list.

  • Pavel

    Fellas, coaches,

    Per your advice, I just flipped:

    Monroe/G.Hill/Odom

    for:

    Nowitzki/Lowry/Foye

    This is my squad in a 16-teamer (deep, h2h, standard cats):

    Pg: Dragic, George hill, Kendall Marshall
    Sg: James Harden, Dwayne Wade,
    Sf: Nicolas Batum, Landry Fields, Turkoglu
    Pf: Lamar Odom, Markieff Morris, Seraphin
    C: Monroe, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Andrew Bynum

    This was alright, right?

    • Pavel

      and my kendall marshall, I mean Leandro Barbosa haha

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      That is a great trade, especially in light of the Calderon trade. Throw out Dirk’s first couple weeks he was working himself back and he’s been just as good as Monroe lately. Then to pick up Lowry and Foye for Hill and Odom? Wow, you just killed that trade (as long as Lowry can remain healthy).

  • sanny350z

    With Austin Daye and Tayshaun Prince out of Detroit, is Kyle Singler a must own player since he’s there on SF?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’m not sure I’d go as far as to say he’s a must add, but I’d give him a look in a 12-team league and larger. I’m not exactly a Pistons expert, but my guess is that they simply get smaller by sliding Singler (who is already starting for the team at SG) to SF and using Knight and Stuckey at SG. Singler is going to see an increase in minutes, but he was already starting, so he’s probably not going to see a huge jump in value.

  • Jessie Ngo

    Since Rudy Gay has been traded to Toronto. Who benefits most? Wil Zach Randolph lead the team in points?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I don’t think anyone really breaks out because of this trade, other than maybe Kyle Lowry if he can stay healthy, but he’s already owned in all leagues. Kyle Singler will probably shift to SF for the Pistons and see some more minutes, while Calderon might benefit from some more consistent minutes. Gay averaged about 6 more shots a game then Prince this year, so guys like Randolph, Gasol and Conley could see a slight bump in scoring (or the Grizzlies could just become an even less efficient offensive team than they already are). And Amir Johnson might benefit a bit now that Davis is gone as long as Bargnani remains out.

  • higuys

    nate robinson or aminu 9 cat?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Aminu. Rose will hurt Robinson when he returns, while no one can hurt Aminu’s value other than Aminu, well and maybe Monty Williams.

  • sam

    with howard aggravating his shoulder again should i 1. propose a trade and hopefully get someone half decent, 2. pick up andrew bynum and stash him on my bench until he comes back, or 3. keep howard in hope that he will still be playing come fantasy playoffs

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Test the waters and see how other managers are valuing Howard. The problem is that they will try to get him from you for cheap. If they price him too low, then keep him and keep your fingers crossed. Pay close attention to medical updates from the Lakers camp.

  • higuys

    should i drop beal for beasley?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Only if Beal is your most expendable asset.

      • higuys

        i’m first place, with a record of 77-40, in a pretty competitive 12 team league. 9 cat h2h. my worst players are beal, aminu, and amir johnson. so should i drop beal or aminu? beal probably, huh?

        • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

          First place? Yeah, you have the luxury to be speculative with Beasley. Go ahead.

  • Red

    Seems like I have to drop Glen Davis, how would you rank the following for a replacement: Koufos, Hawes, Mullens, Speights, R Lopez, Sullinger, Dalembert, Gray, Ed Davis, Turkoglu, or whoever gets Davis’ minutes in orlando? Thanks

    • Red

      also, is Barnes still worth holding on to?

  • zee

    What kind of stats are you expecting with Bargnani’s return? Surely not must-own with Rudy Gay in the mix and a new PG in Lowry? Would you drop Eric Bledsoe for him?
    What about Favors or Drummond, both stashes who I expect to outplay Bargnani after the trade deadline?