Day 89: Where Kyrie Irving Will Break You

Kyrie Irving Balls

Line of the Night: Amazingly, with a number of great performances last night, including a triple-double, it was actually Deron Williams’ 27 points on 10-15 from the field, with 5 threes, 11 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks (2.91 WARP) in a loss to the Rockets that was the best overall fantasy game of the night. Not surprisingly, this is Williams best game of the year so far, although he’s playing well enough recently that he’s ranked #11 overall over the last month of the season according to the player rater, sort of vindicating those who took a gamble on him in the first round of drafts this year.

Honorable Mentions: Kemba Walker took advantage of Ricky Rubio and the lax Minnesota defense to put up his best line of the season so far (and he’s had a few good ones), scoring 25 points, and filling up the box sore with 3 threes, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks (2.59 WARP). If you are handing out awards for breakout player of the year, I think Walker might have to be the frontrunner right now, right?

James Harden helped the Rockets to a 119-106 win over the Nets with 29 points, going 13-14 from the line, with 7 assists and a couple steals (2.55 WARP). Harden is still ranked 6th on our rater for the season, and given the injuries to Kevin Love and now Chris Paul, has he become the new de facto third pick in drafts next year? And Chandler Parsons chipped in 16 points, 6 rebounds and 11 assists (1.98 WARP) as he attempts to become the best fantasy player from the 2011 draft not named Kyrie Irving.

Ty Lawson hit 11-15 shots against the Kings to finish with 26 points, 4 threes, 6 assists and 4 steals (2.47 WARP). After being kicked to the curb by many a fantasy owner after his horrible start to the season (and rightfully so), Lawson is #31 on our rater over the last two weeks of games.

Blake Griffin nearly triple-doubled for the Chris Paul-less Clippers, scoring 24 points, with 8 rebounds, 10 assists and 4 steals (2.04 WARP). Unlike, say, Matt Barnes, Griffin does not seem to be missing Chris Paul all that much as he’s posted two of his best lines of the season during the three game stretch that Paul has just missed.

We finally get to Nicolas Batum, who triple-doubled for the second time this week (show-off) with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists, adding 4 threes for good measure (2.00 WARP). Why no line of the night? The fact that Batum also turned the ball over 5 times kept him off the podium. Still, I don’t think any Batum owners are crying about turnovers today.

Add George Hill to the list of guys who almost triple-doubled last night. Hill bounced back from a couple sub par games to score 22 points, with 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals (1.97 WARP) against the Jazz.

Jrue Holiday dropped 35 points on the Knicks, shooting 16-25 from the field, with 5 rebounds and 6 assists (1.91 WARP). Raymond Felton returned for the Knicks in this game and despite being thrown back into the starting lineup, looks to need a little time to get back up to speed on both sides of the ball – he was also 2-8 from the floor with 8 points and 3 assists on offense (-0.22 WARP). Felton’s return also meant that Jason Kidd (-0.80 WARP) only saw 15 minutes in the game. Although he did start, he was completely ineffective, failing to score or assist in the game. I wouldn’t necessarily drop Kidd on this one performance, but keep watch on his minutes closely now that Felton is back for the team.

Kyrie Irving (1.33 WARP). Balls.

Oh, and did you hear about Ersan Ilyasova’s big double-double? Yeah, you probably don’t want to if you were one of those owners who dropped him this year.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Luke Ridnour (49% owned) gets no respect. Despite being the 73rd ranked player for 9-cat leagues over the last two weeks of games, Ridnour’s ownership rates still hover below 50%. And while Ricky Rubio finally had that good game everyone has been waiting for since he returned from injury, it was Ridnour who really took advantage of the Bobcats’ defense to score 22 points on 9-14 from the field, adding 3 threes, 7 rebounds and 7 assists (1.89 WARP) in nearly 41 minutes on the court. Ridnour should continue to play alongside Rubio in the Wolves backcourt, and while his upside isn’t as high, he’s worth a look in a lot of leagues if you need a PG eligible player.

Pick Up Lines: With Jason Richardson missing his third straight game due to left knee synovitis and Dorell Wright picking up the DNP, Nick Young (17% owned) got the start for the Sixers and went off, scoring 20 points, with 3 threes and 4 assists (1.39 WARP) thanks to a team high 41 minutes. Richardson has recently said that his knee is less than 50%, so he could end up missing a number of games with the injury, making Young a solid pickup in the interim.

I think we’ve hashed through Amir Johnson (45% owned) enough on this blog lately. Like every non-superstar, he’s streaky and going to have ups and downs, Andrea Bargnani is also expected back in the next 1-2 weeks. In the meantime, get Johnson in your lineup for lines like the one he put up last night against the Cavs: 18 points and 12 rebounds (1.07 WARP). Disclaimer: Results not typical and may vary.

Chris Paul missed his third straight game with a bruised right kneecap, so Eric Bledsoe (26% owned) got another start and exploded for 11 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals (0.99 WARP) in 34 minutes. Bledsoe had been one of the best per minute producers in the league this season, and it’s nice to see that he’s continuing that in a starting role. We’ve all seen that knee injuries in the NBA can spiral out of control (John Wall anyone) so if you have any capacity to grab Bledsoe, you definitely want to make that move. Even if he doesn’t really fit your team, he could have tremendous trade value if Paul’s injury becomes serious.

We might have to rename this section the Carlos Delfino (30% owned) honor roll, because we seem to run into this guy every day. Delfino had another good game off the bench for the Rockets, scoring 13 points, with 3 threes, 5 rebounds and 2 steals (0.92 WARP) in only 28 minutes. It’s Delfino’s 6th positive WARP game in a row and he’s averaging 3 threes a game over the past two weeks. I still have the nagging feeling that Delfino will eventually crash and burn, but at this point we just need to give in and enjoy the Delfino experience.

Jose Barea (10% owned) came off the bench for the Wolves to score 19 points, adding 4 threes, 5 rebounds and 4 assists (0.78 WARP) in 32 minutes. The minutes are about 10 more than he’s typically been getting for the Wolves, but this is Barea’s 4th straight positive WARP game and he’s played well enough over the past week that he’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

In his second game with the Cavs, Marreese Speights came off the bench for 27 minutes and finished with a solid 17 points, 5 rebounds and 1 block (0.56 WARP). The opportunity will be there for Speights on a Cavs team without any depth at any position really and Speights has shown ability in the past to score, board and block shots, so he could be big if the minutes break right for him. Or he could also flame out like he’s done in Philly and Memphis. But if you are looking for a guy with upside right now, Speights has that in spades.

And although he’s owned in slightly more than 50% of leagues right now, it’s worth mentioning that Michael Beasley had his second good game out of three for new Suns Coach Lindsey Hunter, going 11-16 from the field to finish with 25 points and 6 boards (1.09 WARP). I don’t like the fact that Beasley’s performance is built on the back of a 70% shooting night, but there is no arguing that he’s got new life under the Suns new coach.

Biggest Loser: Yikes. Bradley Beal has gone from flying high to low, low, low. He’s not just having run of the mill bad games recently, he’s has put up three biggest loser level performances in three of his last four games. Last night against the Bulls, Beal scored 4 points (on 2-10 from the field), with 0 rebounds and 1 assists (-1.11 WARP) in 29 minutes on the court. Beal is apparently dealing with a wrist injury – which Randy Wittman doesn’t think has any effect – and has also seen his minutes reduced thanks to the return of Jordan Crawford. While Beal does have some tantalizing upside, don’t let him destroy your team waiting around for it; he can be dropped in standard leagues right now.

That run of huge double-doubles that Carlos Boozer has a few weeks ago is a distant memory at this point. Boozer struggled in a loss to the Wizards, scoring 6 points (on 3-9 from the field), with 2 rebounds and 0 assists (-1.05 WARP) in 24 minutes . It’s his third negative WARP game out of his last five, an indication that Boozer is struggling lately.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the FBC H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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  • mattyice

    koufas or speights?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’d personally rather gamble on Speights upside. If it doesn’t pan out, there will always be a Koufos type (or Koufos himself) hanging out on the wire that can be picked up down the road.

  • Kalergis

    Thoughts on Earl Clark going forward?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      As long as Gasol and Howard remain on the team, he’ll be limited to 25ish minutes, even if he stays in the starting role. He might do enough to be worth a look in a deep league, but his great run of a few weeks ago seems like a right place at the right time kind of thing. I don’t see him repeating that unless Gasol gets hurt again,

  • cdub

    Hey fellas with the midpoint of most fantasy seasons right about now I’ trying to decide how to strengthen my team. The top teams in my league are all pretty solid in assists. Im primarily a big ball team but really competitive in 3′s still. I just traded parsons for calderon in hopes that I could add him to nash and actually get in the conversation to compete with assists but no I’m thinking I should just punt the category and trade nash. Any advice for who I should target with Nash or what category I should try and strengthen? My team is:

    Guards: Nash, Calderon, Mayo, Klay, Dudley
    Forwards: World Peace, Aminu, and Thad Young
    Centers: Pau Gasol, Ant Davis, Gortat, and Ibaka

    Gasol and Davis have obviously been struggling but I have high hopes for them after the all star break. My team hardly ever competes in points and the top teams in my league all score ridiculous amounts… I’m looking to aim high with a trade of nash and am willing to trade anyone outside of ibaka basically. Any suggestions for me? anyones input is appreciated thanks

    • cdub

      btw I’m thinking of a trade for players such as a Paul Pierce or Paul George type caliber; and I like to have a spot on my roster that I can feel free to add/drop with whenever need be (currently thinking that is Dudley but want to see how he plays today b/c of last nights shannon brown ejection he got some extra burn)

      • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

        Well, you could always flip Nash for Chandler Parsons, who is a better fit with your team :) Just kidding. How many teams in this league and what place are you in? I like the idea of punting assists and simply trading Nash. he’s #79 on our rater for the year (although he does play a scare position), so consider yourself lucky if you can get a Pierce straight-up and I think George might be out of the question, unless you felt like throwing in a guy like Mayo, Thompson or, hell, even Gasol in a 2-for-1.

        If you are punting assists and points and playing big, then you’re going to have to lock down blocks, boards, TOs and FG% with your bigs. Then use your guards to focus on threes and steals. Any traditional big then works well for your team. A few guards who come out looking really good in that equation are Kyle Korver (great fit with your team), Paul George, Stephen Curry, Vince Carter, Kemba Walker, Danilo Gallinari, Carlos Delfino, Darren Collison and Tony Allen.

        • cdub

          Im currently sitting in 3rd place (12 team league but 3rd-7th is only separated by 3-4 games so its very close). I’m definitely gonna try and steal Pierce; but if not I like the gallinari idea as my team isn’t awful at FT% and he could give me a solid boost.

  • Razvan

    How lowry for vucevic sound? Will vuce be as good all season long? I fear big fat baby davis will sniff some of his production. Love lowry but i hate him. And i am 90% sure he will be a top 10 player after the all star break, just enough to show me i trade away sleepers.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Vucevic without Davis in the lineup: 14.8 points, 14.4 boards, 1.2 blocks per game

      Vucevic since Davis has returned:

    • Jessie Ngo

      lowry cant seem to stay healthy, either big man is good. do you need the boards more?

  • Red

    Courtney lee over dudley?

    • Razvan

      lee having a crappy game atm, dudley i say, but wait a couple of games.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’m not sure Lee is the answer for the Celtics (he was barely relevant getting 30+ minutes a game for the Rockets last season), but Dudley just had his third bad game out of four since Lindsey Hunter took over. I’d give Dudley one more game, but if it’s another dud, then I’d probably drop him for someone playing better.

  • Razvan

    lee having a crappy game atm, dudley i say, but wait a couple of games.

  • Train

    Zeller or Glen David rest of season?

    • Razvan

      davis

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Agreed, Davis. Zeller now has Speights stealing some of his minutes.

  • Sticky Mamba

    Morning dudes, I need some crystal ball advice. First, do you think Nick young will keep up his 3′s and scoring and possibly destroy my FG? Second, should I drop IT2 or Matt Barnes for him? Not desperate for 3′s and scoring, just worried about having wasted space on my roster. Thanks

    • Razvan

      Young will always destroy your FG even when he’s not. Barnes will be slightly better than IT2(inconsistent thomas 2)

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      As long as Jason Richardson is out of the lineup (and it could be a little while based on reports of his knee) yes, Young could easily average 16-17 points a game, 1.5-2 threes, and shoot in the low 40s from the floor. He’ll have a lot more value than Thomas in that case and I would definitely make that swap.

  • http://www.ryusha.com/ Berliner

    Greetings from Berlin and I am pounding on my panic button now. Like really really pounding on it. Rondo, MY RONDO is gone. Done, finished, see you next year a la some other person in life who can give you 10 assists per game. Since I’m in a keeper league, I am going to hold onto him until the playoffs as if I get to the playoffs and see that I have no shot, I’ll just hold onto him for next season.

    I’m in H2H 9 cat and obviously there is no way I can replace 10+ assists per game. The closest one that is sitting on the FA pool is J. Tinsley.

    The PGs in my team are as follows: J. Jack, G. Hill, J. Holiday, J. Calderon, K. Lowry, and M. Conley.

    As far as I can see from tonight’s game, P. Pierce might be playing point-forward for the rest of the season or if the Celtics think they can go for it this season, they will trade for a PG.

    So, what the hell should I do?

    -Keep Rondo until the playoffs and see if you can win it all. If you think you can, drop him and go for it.
    -Drop him now and go for it.

    Any thoughts and “Dude, I’m sorry for your loss” are much appreciated.

    • Razvan

      DIASFYL! Next thing to do is not doing anything. Any IR spots?

      • asdfasdf

        Dude, I’m sorry for your loss, and for mine too… At least we can look on the bright side and not have to deal with his FT% or TOs anymore :)

        • http://www.ryusha.com/ Berliner

          Thanks for the condolences and “Dude, that f-ing sucks man”s. Much appreciated.

          What is horrible in my situation is that I’m carrying D. Howard as well. Since he hasn’t strung together enough games to flip him for a decent loveable likeable person, I’m still stuck with his crap FT% and therefore there is not much I can do. But if you have any suggestion who I can flip him for (preferably someone who can get me assists), please let me know.

          As for Rondo, I’m going to hold onto him as we are allowed 3 keepers going into next season. I’m going to have him for another season and it will be criminal to throw him into the wild so that my scavenger friends can pounce on him. No IR spots in my league, I’m afraid.

          Jose or Kyle? I’m keeping them both until after the trade deadline. If Jose goes to a team who needs a starting PG, I’m back in it. If he’s not, then I can start looking to restock my roster for NEXT season. NEXT season. Sounds just awful to me.

          Just so you guys all know, I slept like shit last night following this news… :(

    • Jessie Ngo

      give up either jose or kyle. there is not point in keeping both of them on your squad. right now jose has a higher stock since kyle cant stay healthy. you can try kyle for ty lawson or goran.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Dude, I’m sorry for your loss…

      Keeper league you say? How many players do you get to keep from year to year? Although I’m not a fan of packing it in and completely giving up on a fantasy team, your hands may be tied in a keeper league.

      Rondo especially is a tough loss because, as you note, you cannot replace what he brings to the table. It’s just not going to happen, so not only do you have a hole in your team now, it totally messes with your team strategy. You still do have a number of quality PGs though, so if you decide to go for it, the strategy would probably have to involve a highly focused small ball team that can sneak out 5-4 wins off of assists, steals, FT%, threes and one other category. It would have a high degree of difficulty, but I wouldn’t say it’s impossible.

  • illusionz

    With the news of Rondo would you pick up Avery Bradley over IT2?

    • Razvan

      I would get barbosa, i think he will carry the load, he got the most minutes at PG tonight, just a hunch.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I don’t really see a winner out of the Rondo injury. For the time being, his minutes are probably parcelled out between Bradley, Courtney Lee, Barbosa and Terry, with no guy being the clear stand out and one to pick up. That being said, Thomas has been crazy inconsistent this season and I would rather own Bradley than him, although their still might be a better option out there than either of those two guys

  • Jessie Ngo

    Who is the better guard to own, Monta Ellis or Brandon Jennings?

    • Razvan

      Jennings

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I agree, Jennings, who has a lot of the same stats as Ellis, but is a much better three point shooter

  • Jessie Ngo

    Greg Monroe or Ersan?

    • Razvan

      Monroe at this point

  • Razvan

    Jesus Dwight is 1-8 FT line, how can a pro basketball player be that horrible at the FT line, shaq is happy.

  • Jessie Ngo

    Now that Rajon is out for the season. Is there anyone from Boston who is a must add?

    • Razvan

      Do you even bother reading other comments?

      • happy plastic

        There must be some other ideas out there. I’m hearing Bradley. I’m stuck. Not sure what to do. Andre Miller is a good bet for assists if you’ve lost Rondo. Better FT shooter too. Right now I don’t know WHAT to do!

        • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

          Yeah, it’s impossible to replace Rondo stats with someone you pick up off the wire. but I can’t think of a better option if you just need the assists than Miller. Bradley is ok, but he’s the anti-Rondo – no assists, but very efficient player. If you love Rondo, be prepared to be underwhelmed by Bradley.

      • Jessie Ngo

        i want to hear other ideas brah before i make a big commitment for my team.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      No, I don’t see any of those guys as a must add. Lee probably picks up the most minutes, but he’s never been a great fantasy play his entire career. The rest of the minutes are probably split between Bradley, Barbosa and Terry. I suppose Bradley is the guy who gains the most out of the injury, but he’s far from being anything close to Rondo.

  • asdfasdf

    Would you trade Asik for Matt Barnes or ask for a little more?

    • Razvan

      asik more :)

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      If you are punting FT% and turnovers, I’d rather have Asik, otherwise I’d rather have Barnes. In a trade between the two Barnes has more overall value because Asik is pretty much a one category wonder.

  • Jessie Ngo

    matt barnes ownership is on the decline. what do you guys make of his stock? should i trade him?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I think he was playing a little over his head to start the season. I also think the CP3 injury has hurt him, as his FG% is down since Paul has been out of the lineup. The rest of his stats seem ok recently. I’d hold him for now unless you can get someone to overpay, which probably won’t happen, since he’s Matt Barnes.

  • Nick

    Should I keep MKG on my team? I made a trade for him that has left egg on my face. I thought he’d have a stronger second half, but there’s waiver wire guys with more promise (Beasley, Jeff Green, Koufos).

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      He’s a sunk cost at this point. Doesn’t matter what you paid for him, he’s killing you at the moment and it’s time to drop him and move on. Rather than get better as the season progresses, MKG has actually been getting worse. He might become a good player down the road, but for this season there are much better options out there.